Political preferences take a long while to change

Prashnam survey of 20,000 adult voters in 12 states also found that Yogi Adityanath is more popular than Amit Shah.

PRASHNAM INSIGHT #34

The incumbent government has recently completed 2 years in office. The government is stable and have all signs of completing the term in office.

Yet, it is important to take stock of changes in people’s minds from time to time. So, Prashnam decided to ask people randomly selected across 12 states; who is their preferred choice as next PM?

So, in the first question asked we gave them a choice of their respective state CM (except for Amit Shah for Gujarat), Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi and some other person.

Those who opted for “some other person” in the first question were given the choices of Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, Yogi Adityanath, and Akhilesh Yadav.

The following index has been weighted by the total number of PCs in these states to arrive at a national percentage for each choice.

As expected, Narendra Modi is well ahead of other politicians with 33% of people preferring him as the next PM. Rahul Gandhi is a distant second with 17%.

Strikingly, it is not very different from the party-wise vote shares for LS 2019 if we club the index percentages party-wise.

So, we can deduce that the political choices of people remain stable for a longer time.

Respondents Profile

18435 adults in 12 states namely – Bihar, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal spread across 277 districts.

Read the full report in The Print here

The raw response data is available here.